The continuing uncertainty around recession and recovery has sparked renewed client enthusiasm for scenarios. Three things we can say with certainty about the future: it will be different from the past, it will have surprises in store, and organisations will be caught out by their failure to anticipate, prepare for and respond to change. |
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Scenarios help leader teams engage with the future. Done well, they help them ‘rehearse’ alternative futures, anticipate change, and plan in ways that help them respond more flexibly when times turn tough – they’re a great tool in the strategist’s toolkit.
But here’s the problem: scenarios are harder to do well than they are to do badly! Too many scenario projects end in failure – we estimate 70%+ – a consequence of muddled thinking, poor process and low engagement.
It doesn’t have to be that way. Here are our top tips for smarter scenarios. |
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1. Understand current realities - Start by understanding the forces that are shaping – and have shaped – your market. Unless scenarios are grounded in past and present realities they lack realism and meaning
2. Be clear about the purpose - Our approach, Future View, is not about forecasting, but exploring intelligent scenarios to help identify opportunities and stimulate better decisions
3. Ensure broad involvement - Draw information from a broad range of sources – Integrate different thought leaders from across the business and ensure output is pushed deep into the organisation
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rest of the tips |